next winter might be a cold one...

...saw Germans putting up snow poles in the Highlands last night...


Carpe diem hiems!

In German: HypoRealEstate

... a report on and about Hypo Real Estate

Sorry, this comes in German language, only, even though the bankster's crime scene was very proud to have an English, an international, even a global name, one that most Germans would translate with something like "Hypo: True Property". Well, they changed the name to a now pure German one, at least they are all German property now.

I think it is worthwhile to add this here for those who understand (some) German: the report on this "system relevant" bank and how it was nationalised reveals how much criminal energy and intelligence "was" behind what is now a €200bn grave in a Bad Bank, guaranteed by the German government, the tax payer; soon to become real debts: shit (will) happen(s)!

Carpe diem!

in dubio pro banks

Citi Notice Causes Customer Angst

Citigroup added a note to the banks statements to their customers:

"Effective April 1, 2010, we reserve the right to require (7) days advance notice before permitting a withdrawal from all checking accounts. While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change."

It comes through the back door and hardly is worthwhile a note in the news.

Is this just to be prepared?

Carpe diem!

the new EU energy commissioner

As a native German speaking English fairly well it is kind of hard to have to listen to another native German trying to speak English having not been taught to do so... while not being able to help. However, it is cruel to have to hear him speak German which he does by insisting (beginning of the video) on absolutely every German needing to be able to speak and understand - guess what?: Die englische Sprache!

Carpe diem!

do you understand Sarkozy?

Reuters: Sarkozy to grill Renault chiefs over Clio on Saturday

President Nicolas Sarkozy has summoned Renault executive chairman Carlos Ghosn for a meeting over concerns that a new version of its popular Clio car could be made mainly in Turkey.

Government spokesman Luc Chatel told reporters the meeting would take place "very soon" and said it was "completely normal" for the state to make its views clear.

The state has long sought to influence Renault's strategy to preserve domestic jobs. In recent years, Renault has moved production of many of its smaller models to countries where labour, taxes, and production costs are lower.

In February 2009, as a condition of a government aid package during the economic crisis, Renault pledged not to close factories in France for the duration of a 3 billion euro ($4.37 billion) low-interest loan.

Interesting to see the difference between Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy running their economies; to imagine Mrs. Merkel ordering Mr. Volkswagen, Mr.Piech, in to tell him to not transfer jobs into foreign countries like Turkey or in the end China would cause a major revolt amongst the German neo-liberal global players; their social consciousness has been globalised; as well and at best.

Remember that disastrous headline about "British jobs for ..." not so long ago? President Sarkozy takes short-cuts - good for him that he obviously has something to protect and at the same time understands, that labour is not an endless resource but faces severe competition.

Carpe diem!

God sends crashes?

Telegraph article: "A sterling crash is a godsend"

Apart from who should send what kind of crashes I doubt that the idea of hoping for a weakening currency makes much sense.

A currency mirrors the state in which an economy is in; the weaker the currency the more fragile the economy becomes and – most important - vice versa. The Sterling is weakening ever since 1949 against the DM for example, now the EURO. What once was DM11.70 had become around DM3.00 when the DM was buried and now is almost par value with the EURO [i.e. DM1.95583].

On the long run, how will the Sterling win the race that all major currencies are competing in which is trying to support exports and breeding inflation, the obvious two only ways out of the absolute and disastrous figures?

Just to see the full picture: Pound versus Euro started off in 1999 at 0.65874 and yesterday was 0.9131; that has made all exports round about 40% more competitive for our export partners, so where is the export boom?

At the same time imports are inflated by 40%, that, under normal circumstances would trigger "imported inflation"; once the deflationary trend is over with such "normal circumstances" might strike back and in the mix with a weak and affluent currency lead to (hyper) inflation.

Of course, all equities and liabilities will be relative, then.

Carpe diem!

GBP versus DM between 1983 and 1997
source: Deutsche Bundesbank

minus + minus = -?

Wall Street Journal: original article

-0.5 + -6.3 + -6.1 = -12.46[%]

The -12.46% stands for the shrinkage of the US economy since 01-07-08, so 3rd. and 4th. quarter 08 as well as 1st. quarter 09; nine months.

This is still quite an artificial number, far from being punchy.

You will find more numbers here, e.g. +0.4, -23.0, -51.8 which end up at 37.3% of what it was on July 1st last year, a recess of round about 63% representing the decrease of the 'gross private domestic investment'.

This is like a ship that under full steam drops anchor; like a complete economy going on strike; I guess tax revenue will mirror that.

Carpe diem!

BaFin

SPIEGEL ONLINE: original article

A chance to compare future debt levels: UK/Germany

The above “secret” article on a secret paper is only in German; you will immediately understand why I could not find it in any other language… so far:

BaFin is a federal institution governed by public law. It has legal personality (a legal entity) and operates within the portfolio of the Federal Ministry of Finance(Germany) (Bundesministerium der Finanzen - BMF.

Bad Bank? Here is the chance to understand how bad such a "Bad (German) Bank" will have to be causing debt levels unheard of: mysteriously a list has made its way into the (German) public domain, a list that BaFin put together on 17 German banks and their exposure to toxic papers. The list differs between toxic papers and currently “non marketable” papers giving a combined total of € 816bn. From an accounting point of view what is the difference? May be a “higher Memo Value”?

Die 816-Milliarden-Summe setzt sich nach SPIEGEL-Informationen so zusammen:

* Landesbanken: 355 Milliarden Euro Davon 180 Milliarden toxische Papiere, 175 Milliarden Euro derzeit nicht handelbare Papiere. Allein für die HSH Nordbank setzt die Bafin rund 100 Milliarden Euro an - etwa 13 Milliarden Euro davon sollen Giftpapiere sein. Nach Informationen der "SZ" sind bei der Landesbank Baden-Württemberg 92 Milliarden in der Bilanz, bei der Westdeutschen Landesbank 84 Milliarden.

* Hypo Real Estate: 268 Milliarden Euro

* Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken: 54 Milliarden 25 Milliarden davon toxische Papiere und 29 Milliarden derzeit nicht handelbare Papiere

* Privatbanken - wie Commerzbank und Deutsche Bank: 139 Milliarden Euro
Davon werden 53 Milliarden als toxisch angesehen, 86 Milliarden als nicht handelbare Papiere. Die Deutsche Bank hat allerdings so gut wie keine Giftpapiere.

[German Milliarden = British billion]

The majority of the banks mentioned are in public hands anyway (Landesbanken + HRE = €623bn). BaFin on Friday night tried to limit the damage by arguing the list would “not only include toxic papers” but also “questionable assets”; by “no means” this list would allow for “any conclusions” on the risk or creditworthiness of the listed German banks; “this list” had “not meant to become public”; therefore the Munich office of investigation was called in to go: find the leak!

The equity capital of all German banks sums up to approx. €330bn; put the above figure in and the result will make the term “the banks are factually insolvent” this century’s understatement.

Has anybody spotted the equivalent UK, US or, better still, the combined EURO-countries’ list so far?

Carpe diem!