Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts

Friday, 5 February 2010

more than a greek tragedy

Dante or Ponzi?

This is about to become a EUROpean tragedy; while failing Greek debts will be a problem for Euroland it could well ignite a global disaster once Spain and/or Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, not to forget Berlusconi's kingdom get into similar trouble; they all are in trouble, of course, now, but so far the lesser-in-trouble are obviously covering the more-in-trouble. The interdependency of international banks buying national bonds preferable those that pay top interest issued by countries that in the worst case will have to be bailed out by the same national banks that provide inexpensive liquidity to the international banks that in return - you guessed it - buy national bonds is a classic circulus vitiosus or, from a legal perspective, must be addressed as the most advanced Ponzi scheme ever. Let's refrain from discussing the truth or fantasy various countries, not only Greece, have put into providing the basic figures in the first place.


It is really not UK's above 9% nor the 4% share; it rather is the sheer enormity of the plain numbers, away from any percentage gobble; bailing out three relatively small countries alone will make the bank bailout look like ordering early morning tea; once this game of "Ponzi feeds Ponzi" is collapsing we will know the depression has begun.

But then, why bother, everything will be fine as long as
Mr. Trichet and the rest of the gang guarantee what they guarantee.

Carpe diem!


Tuesday, 17 November 2009

in-de-flation

telegraph: Train operators in spin row over fair rises

Obviously we will be going through deflationary times with inflationary exceptions; but lets face it, items that are available in abundance and not really "essential" when it comes to making a living are becoming really cheap where items, fees and taxes that are necessary and unavoidable will drive inflation.

Some fares will rise sharply, with First Great Western imposing a 15 per cent increase on its "super saver single" between Swindon and London, which will go up from £20 to £23.

Meanwhile Southeastern trains is pushing up the cost of all its off-peak return fares by 7.3 per cent, while passengers on Arriva Trains Wales will see increases approaching 10 per cent on some journeys.

I am sure the guardians of any official statistic will try to calm us down by mixing in- and deflation notwithstanding life per se becoming more expensive!

Carpe diem!

Monday, 10 August 2009

Ought to Know Max Keiser, part 2

He must be very independant...



Carpe diem!

Wednesday, 24 June 2009

1929 : 2009


A Tale of Two Depressions

As much as I like to be an optimist this makes it hard(er).


The comparison of 1929 and 2009 does not end at finding a "9" at the end of each year's figure; also brushing any comparison aside by declaring the world of '29 was "unprepared" and "not fully developed" in reality is a very counter productive argument: one could say that even though '29 had enormous economic potential lying ahead, it soon rang 1939.

While starting a war is always an option, 2009 sees the world having run out of the majority of comparably peaceful economic chances. Fully developed, few blank spots on the map, matured, over crowded, an inflation of crunches, black holes, bad and no banks, etc. - what and where are the options?

Could it be us for whom the bell tolls?

Carpe diem!

Wednesday, 29 April 2009

minus + minus = -?

Wall Street Journal: original article

-0.5 + -6.3 + -6.1 = -12.46[%]

The -12.46% stands for the shrinkage of the US economy since 01-07-08, so 3rd. and 4th. quarter 08 as well as 1st. quarter 09; nine months.

This is still quite an artificial number, far from being punchy.

You will find more numbers
here, e.g. +0.4, -23.0, -51.8 which end up at 37.3% of what it was on July 1st last year, a recess of round about 63% representing the decrease of the 'gross private domestic investment'.

This is like a ship that under full steam drops anchor; like a complete economy going on strike; I guess tax revenue will mirror that.

Carpe diem!