The Renminbi as the shadow currency of the US $ is just as weak while at the same time China is extending its geopolitical influence by securing resources, energy and markets.
Carpe diem!
Carpe diem!
Wednesday, 21 October 2009
and the EURO takes it all!
Obviously the EURO is currently loosing the fight of the economies in trouble (which one is not?) of trying to import inflation (i.e. reducing debt) and export goods (i.e. economic growth); the easiest way to achieve both is weakening the own currency; by coincidence (?!) all major and not-so-majorcurrencies are on the same trip, some more successful like $ and RMB thanothers.
Not that it would make a big difference but setting the EURO rules did definitely not include a strategy out of a global economic disaster other than an automated destruction.
The result is going to beat 1929.
Carpe diem!
Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Monday, 19 October 2009
God sends crashes?
Telegraph article: "A sterling crash is a godsend"
Apart from who should send what kind of crashes I doubt that the idea of hoping for a weakening currency makes much sense.
A currency mirrors the state in which an economy is in; the weaker the currency the more fragile the economy becomes and – most important - vice versa. TheSterling
On the long run, how will the Sterling win the race that all major currencies are competing in which is trying to support exports and breeding inflation, the obvious two only ways out of the absolute and disastrous figures?
Just to see the full picture: Pound versus Euro started off in 1999 at 0.65874 and yesterday was 0.9131; that has made all exports round about 40% more competitive for our export partners, so where is the export boom?
At the same time imports are inflated by 40%, that, under normal circumstances would trigger "imported inflation"; once the deflationary trend is over with such "normal circumstances" might strike back and in the mix with a weak and affluent currency lead to (hyper) inflation.
Of course, all equities and liabilities will be relative, then.
Carpe diem!
A currency mirrors the state in which an economy is in; the weaker the currency the more fragile the economy becomes and – most important - vice versa. The
On the long run, how will the Sterling win the race that all major currencies are competing in which is trying to support exports and breeding inflation, the obvious two only ways out of the absolute and disastrous figures?
Just to see the full picture: Pound versus Euro started off in 1999 at 0.65874 and yesterday was 0.9131; that has made all exports round about 40% more competitive for our export partners, so where is the export boom?
At the same time imports are inflated by 40%, that, under normal circumstances would trigger "imported inflation"; once the deflationary trend is over with such "normal circumstances" might strike back and in the mix with a weak and affluent currency lead to (hyper) inflation.
Of course, all equities and liabilities will be relative, then.
Carpe diem!
GBP versus DM between 1983 and 1997
source: Deutsche Bundesbank
source: Deutsche Bundesbank
Friday, 9 October 2009
CHP - one way forward: intelligent grid
1.3 to 4.7 kW electric and 4.0 to 12.5 kW thermal energy
CHP = Combined Heat and Power,
CHP = producing thermal and electric energy in one unit, in one go)
One way to avoid rising fuel bills is to consume less energy by avoiding waste and abundance.
If governed by intelligence uncoupled from lobbies or cartels saving ennergy won’t let you sit in the cold and dark at all.
Modern methods of Insulation, Construction and e.g. Illumination of your then even cosy home are on the way to help: for example Passive House Technology and LED lighting (certainly not that energy saving bulb crap!).
But there is another key element, which is to produce energy and become part of an intelligent grid (even become autarkic/independent, all it takes is an additional battery and a rectifier).
Thousands of these highly efficient CHP systems installed at the users' end of the grid would make additional power plants like unsolved-waste-laden-nuclear- or ccs-burdened-fossil-power stations redundant.
If governed by intelligence uncoupled from lobbies or cartels saving ennergy won’t let you sit in the cold and dark at all.
Modern methods of Insulation, Construction and e.g. Illumination of your then even cosy home are on the way to help: for example Passive House Technology and LED lighting (certainly not that energy saving bulb crap!).
But there is another key element, which is to produce energy and become part of an intelligent grid (even become autarkic/independent, all it takes is an additional battery and a rectifier).
Thousands of these highly efficient CHP systems installed at the users' end of the grid would make additional power plants like unsolved-waste-laden-nuclear- or ccs-burdened-fossil-power stations redundant.
The suppliers will need to be told to like the idea.
Carpe diem!
Monday, 10 August 2009
Ought to Know Max Keiser, part 1
Refreshing to listen, hear and digest...
Wait till you hear him in part 2...
Carpe diem!
Wait till you hear him in part 2...
Carpe diem!
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Do you believe in Miracles?
Telegraph story and BBC's Robert peston on the same subject
$3.44bn in 90 days!
I believe they are right!
Carpe diem!
$3.44bn in 90 days!
What a remarkable resurrection? $3.44bn in just three months, only some months after they had to be bailed out by the tax payer. But then they had not only received cash but grandiose monetary instruments that allowed them to re-valuate rubbish and garbage.
Not only are they making serious profits; they have also repaid the $10bn of tax payers' money already: good boys!
Incidentally the same good boys, Goldman managers, sold $691m of their own shares between 09/2008 and 04/2009 - into a falling market. Compare this to $435 being sold by the same mangers between 09/2007 and 04/2008, when shares were almost three times higher... which makes it a +300% increase in volume; so does that mean they do not believe in the generous offer of balance sheet cosmetics, ultra low interest rates and cash floods being sustainable and sufficient to make holding on to Goldman shares worthwhile?
Not only are they making serious profits; they have also repaid the $10bn of tax payers' money already: good boys!
Incidentally the same good boys, Goldman managers, sold $691m of their own shares between 09/2008 and 04/2009 - into a falling market. Compare this to $435 being sold by the same mangers between 09/2007 and 04/2008, when shares were almost three times higher... which makes it a +300% increase in volume; so does that mean they do not believe in the generous offer of balance sheet cosmetics, ultra low interest rates and cash floods being sustainable and sufficient to make holding on to Goldman shares worthwhile?
I believe they are right!
Carpe diem!
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
1929 : 2009
A Tale of Two Depressions
As much as I like to be an optimist this makes it hard(er).
The comparison of 1929 and 2009 does not end at finding a "9" at the end of each year's figure; also brushing any comparison aside by declaring the world of '29 was "unprepared" and "not fully developed" in reality is a very counter productive argument: one could say that even though '29 had enormous economic potential lying ahead, it soon rang 1939.
While starting a war is always an option, 2009 sees the world having run out of the majority of comparably peaceful economic chances. Fully developed, few blank spots on the map, matured, over crowded, an inflation of crunches, black holes, bad and no banks, etc. - what and where are the options?
Could it be us for whom the bell tolls?
Carpe diem!
Thursday, 14 May 2009
P.I.C.N.I.C.
Man tries to copy nature; swim like a shark, clean with Lotus or learn from birds' wings how planes can save energy (e.g. winglets). No harm in copying, but why do we only do this half-heartedly?
P.I.C.N.I.C. stands for Produced In Carbon Neutral Integrated Cycle and as such follows nature's rule where nothing is waste but everything is energy. While the manmade definition of waste allows wasting, our globe's logic is to keep things in balance; life incorporates death in form of new life; same as any product recycles to product(s), leaves no room for waste.
Let’s have a party: let's have a P.I.C.N.I.C.!
Carpe diem!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
