Monday, 19 October 2009

God sends crashes?

Telegraph article: "A sterling crash is a godsend"

Apart from who should send what kind of crashes I doubt that the idea of hoping for a weakening currency makes much sense.

A currency mirrors the state in which an economy is in; the weaker the currency the more fragile the economy becomes and – most important - vice versa. The Sterling is weakening ever since 1949 against the DM for example, now the EURO. What once was DM11.70 had become around DM3.00 when the DM was buried and now is almost par value with the EURO [i.e. DM1.95583].

On the long run, how will the Sterling win the race that all major currencies are competing in which is trying to support exports and breeding inflation, the obvious two only ways out of the absolute and disastrous figures?

Just to see the full picture: Pound versus Euro started off in 1999 at 0.65874 and yesterday was 0.9131; that has made all exports round about 40% more competitive for our export partners, so where is the export boom?

At the same time imports are inflated by 40%, that, under normal circumstances would trigger "imported inflation"; once the deflationary trend is over with such "normal circumstances" might strike back and in the mix with a weak and affluent currency lead to (hyper) inflation.

Of course, all equities and liabilities will be relative, then.

Carpe diem!

GBP versus DM between 1983 and 1997
source: Deutsche Bundesbank


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