... into depression?
Last Friday night I attended a lecture on
The quotation marks in the title expressed the lecturer's doubts obviously shared by the majority of the audience of where we really are; "in" a recession, “about to get out of one" or is this the beginning of what could be seismic changes?
Even though we talked about
Take nothing for granted!
100 years ago this planet hosted little more than one billion people; little did they know what they were in for: lots of turmoil and drastic life style changes, WWI and II, almost No. III, but also mobile phones, cars, refrigerators, free markets, freedom to travel for many and then plenty of everything for most; mobility unlimited: long live capitalism.
My Grandma, born 1905, knew the last German Kaiser, saw Hitler come and kill, lost it all, started from scratch and lived until the years when all-German Chancellor Kohl celebrated the flourishing German landscapes dogmatising the has-to-be-EURO.
In homage of capitalism and to rope in a reunited Greater Germany Europe installed this distressed single currency called EURO - eight years later we now pick up the pieces.
Think to the end!
The EURO is history: it was to provide shelter for the export champion
Keeping the shine and moving forward by just pumping more debts of deeply indebted economies into what are over indebted economies, anyway, while the global war for the weakest currency and the lowest production cost, i.e. export by hook or by crook, has only just begun ... how does this make sense? When all seek their Heil in exporting who is going to import, to pay …how … when? The white spots on the maps are long filled with colour and data, no more new emerging markets, we have addressed them all; growth finds its limit on the given surface of this planet.
... revisit ...
the alternative: new Drachma for Greece writing off huge chunks of its debts and shelving the rest until the pigs start to fly will make Greece the holy golden tourist land and at the same time provide cheap labour right at the European doorstep; no need to go to China for labour intensive production and more pressure and competition just around the corner of EUROland. But then, would not EURO-trapped
At the end the EURO would be hard but brittle like glass until it had finally destroyed the one and only supporting leg of what once was an export champion's famous economy; then imports to Germany might become inexpensive and worthwhile had not the German masses' purchase power been destroyed long ago.
A vicious circle...
Indeed, it is the classic robbing Peter to pay Paul or vice versa decision. Actually, I do not believe in the politicians being able to solve this overwhelming problem at all - simply because they are the very same that led us into this situation not listening to those many experts that had predicted exactly what has happened so far and is going to happen now. It was just so easy to see it coming and they were told more than once by very competent people.
... and so downward this spiral …
With or without a decision for or against hanging in there, the Euro, in fact Europe has lost its momentum; it has lost its competitiveness, the Europeans are exploited, sedated and stuck in serious but then deflective problems such as migration and ageing of their population; the real challenges, opportunities and markets with still some growth potential from consuming to purchase power are found in Asia; a pity that those are pretty much protected by language and more so by political and social structures.
…tightening in on us!
After what was dreamt to be one free, unlimited global market this vicious spiral is very likely to take us back into what was called sectionalism, once; in 1815 38 independent states formed the “Deutsche Bund”, an early structure of
What will happen is all but in our Scottish hands; regional or national election will not make a blind bit of difference; however, since waiting for who, devil or Beelzebub, will be the winner offers no progress we might as well prepare ourselves for what will happen undoubtedly; devil and Beelzebub have in common that the “time after” will feel like somebody hit the reset button; the fight for labour and for competitive, hard currency collecting export goods will repeat 19th and 20th centuries’ headlines; at the same time access to resources will only be available for those who pay in advance with hard currency or utterly inflated paper money. Protectionism is around the corner when all is in short supply and needs fighting for.
This might all be depressive news; but then, much better than a long, dark depression. So go for it.