Thursday, 12 August 2010

the summer is over

Black Forest

Back in the office; the disastrous every days' global news with 75% on climate and weather catastrophes and the rest on wars and bombs limit my expectations; not pessimism, but sober realism.

Not surprisingly EUROland is still hanging in there; soon the € will return making the headlines as none of the immanent problems have been solved; really, not even addressed but are due worsening. Against all negative figures and American kludge the $ will get stronger; difficult to see what will happen to the £ - my best guess is it will get stronger against the € as the £problems are just such while the €problems are unsolvable and an accumulative disease. Wonder how China will cope with doing the splits between its announcement of appreciating its currency while exports need to keep growing fast; it might comfort the big party that their $assets will be very profitable and help buying out the remaining resources for their own good while they watch the real estate bubbles pop.
The US are approaching Double Dip; not funny, Japan and Europe are following right behind, the question will be who will be able to develop an upturn after what very likely will be a long and deep second dip; its line magnified will look like a bouncing ball loosing its momentum while moving downhill. But then, one country alone won't make it anyway.

Upwards it goes with many other figures; unemployment same as CO2; food and commodity indices are influenced by falling yields and high(er) demands which will mix some hard to digest inflationary figures in what will be deflation for mass products and all assets from housing to shares; some call it stagflation - I believe that is just trivialising what will cause the scissors between poor and rich open ever faster and wider.

On top of all the human race faces an unseen change of its biotope; no matter what it is called the human influence by its mass and the unlimited consumption of limited resources is causing massive disruption and destruction. Anchored deep in the alleged human intelligence the deniers of any human influence - caused by +seven billion energy wasters - are democratically allowed to have their say and frivolously (and ignorantly) dispute what the armies of scientists of all faculties come up with on a global scale.

Any optimism left will see hard times with no good news coming in; the bad news about us finally acknowledging that the endless number of ongoing and unsolved and as such unsolvable crunches is just one big overall crisis will hopefully be the first good news. I wonder how long we will have to wait for that to happen.

Carpe diem!